Indiana is a long way from the battlegrounds for control of the senate: Alaska, Texas and Michigan. Republicans are almost guaranteed to hold the statehouse, and few statewide positions are competitive. But there could still be some surprises.
“This is one of those years – I think the last time was 2014 – where there's no president, there's no senator, there's no governor on the ballot in Indiana,” said Paul Helmke, a professor of practice at IU’s O’Neill School. “That's traditionally the year that we get the lowest turnout in Indiana.”
But despite that, he said there’s no reason to expect a boring election night.
For the first time in years, a Democrat has a good shot at one of Indiana’s top offices. Beau Bayh, son of a governor and grandson of a senator is running against non-incumbent Republican Max Engling. The addition of former Republican Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard running with the Lincoln Party increases the uncertainty and could pave the way for independents years down the road.
One Republican congresswoman, Victoria Spartz of Indiana’s 5th District, even faces a stiff challenge from State Senator J.D. Ford.
“She's had some tough runs in the past,” Helmke said. “She had said at one time she wasn't going to run again. She's had primary challengers, so that's one that that I think could be in play. If that one goes Democratic, it means Democrats are going to have a great night across the country.”
And that’s just what Republicans are afraid of. The party in the White House usually fairs poorly in the first midterms, and voters say they’re unhappy.
Steven Webster, an associate professor at IU, said rage could be a big motivator in this election cycle.
“Lots of the frustration that we'd see in the electorate would be with the increase in the price of groceries and of gasoline,” Webster said. “I think these economic indicators are a large thing driving some sentiment to swing against Donald Trump and Republicans throughout the country.”
Anger is unlikely to cause party defections, but it could decide who shows up Tuesday said Marjorie Hershey, a professor emeritus at IU. Even in the statehouse, a “blue wave” could dent, if not wrest, Republican power.
“It wouldn't take very many state house or state senate seats to break that supermajority,” Hershey said. “That means that these elections are really crucial in terms of what's going to be on the agenda next time.”
The clearest indication that the ruling party feels threatened is the president’s response. Trump has oscillated on sending armed federal agents to monitor polling places, which is generally illegal.
He’s also cast doubt on the security of US elections. The Department of Justice says it will send election monitors to all 50 states to make sure noncitizens aren’t voting.
“What used to happen was that poll watchers were sent under the auspices of the Voting Rights Act, to make sure that Black Americans and other minority Americans were not kept from the polls,” Hershey said.
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita welcomed election monitors, but Democrats and some political scholars worry they’re not coming to ensure elections are fair.
“It's a clear case of attempted voter suppression,” Hershey said. “There's no doubt in my mind.”
If the federal government did attempt to interfere with the election, Webster said it would be hard to predict the outcome.
“We don't really know what that would look like because we don't really have a history of that happening in the United States,” he said.
But even without actual interference, poll watchers can affect voter turnout.
“In some cases perception matters just as much as reality,” Webster added. “If people perceive these poll watchers to be doing something untoward, that could influence behavior in and of itself.”
Party leaders are treating this election as existential, and yet it’s too early to say whether voter turnout will reflect that urgency. Indiana has one of the lowest voter registration rates in the country, and of those registered, many sit out midterm elections.
“The reports I'm hearing are that you know there's been heavier than normal early voting, absentee voting, and showing up at the at the early voting centers,” Helmke said. “But it seems like every year I keep hearing that, and then you get the final results, and we end up just the same as we've been, or even lower.”
Hershey pointed to the differences with other electorates around the world.
“In Israel this week, two or so hours before the polls closed, 75% of the eligible population had already voted,” she said. “Here, in a midterm, which is obviously an important election, we'll be lucky if we come anywhere close to 50%.”
