Hoosiers may be in for a warm, dry winter due to this year’s Super El Niño.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service are predicting a strong El Niño weather pattern this year, which will raise ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific by almost four degrees Fahrenheit.

Christopher Callahan studies climate change at Indiana University's O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. He said the Midwest will likely avoid the worst effects of the climate event.

“El Niño has its biggest effects in tropical regions, and so the Midwest is kind of a little bit removed from where the most extreme effects of El Nino will be,” Callahan said. “We do expect a relatively dry winter.”

El Niño events are natural weather patterns that occur every two to seven years. While this year’s pattern is predicted to be unusually strong, the strength of El Niño events doesn’t guarantee that the weather effects of the pattern will be stronger – just more likely to happen.

El Niño tends to decrease tornadoes and have little impact on flooding or drought in Indiana. However, Callahan said it’s hard to say what the exact weather impacts to Hoosiers will be.

“Every El Niño is different, and this one is occurring at the same time as rapid climate change and in against the backdrop of other changes,” Callahan said. “And so, to some degree, we'll have to wait and see what this winter holds.”

A warmer Midwest winter could lead to drier soil for farmers and extend suitable conditions for pests like ticks and the emerald ash borer.

This year’s Super El Niño will peak and have the most noticeable effects in November, December, and January.