In January 2025 NASA made an important announcement.
An asteroid had just been detected by a telescope in Chile, passing by at just twice as far from Earth as the moon. And based on available tracking data, there was more than a one percent chance that the object could strike Earth on a future encounter in the year 2032.
The researchers estimated that the asteroid was between 100 and 300 feet in diameter, and if it hit Earth, it would release as much energy as a ten-megaton nuclear bomb. That’s more than six hundred times the energy of the nuclear bomb that destroyed the city of Hiroshima.
Astronomers raced to gather more data because, by April, the asteroid would be too far from Earth to observe. And the next opportunity wouldn’t come until 2028 – the last chance to study its trajectory before the fateful encounter of 2032.
The worrisome asteroid was detected as part of NASA’s Project ATLAS, an ongoing mission to find, track, and better understand asteroids and comets that could threaten our planet. This system consists of four telescopes, with two in Hawaii, one in Chile, and one in South Africa. Each automatically scans the whole sky several times a night looking for asteroids that pass near Earth.
By late February, experts at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory had analyzed new data submitted by astronomers worldwide. The refined results ruled out the possibility of the asteroid hitting Earth, though there remained a small chance it could hit the moon.
This time, at least, Earth is safe.
A special thanks goes to Anne Virkki, the University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, for reviewing today's episode.
Further Reading
- Newfound asteroid may hit Earth in 2032, scientists say
- This asteroid may hit Earth in 2032. Don’t panic—scientists have a plan
- Astronomers discover 196 foot asteroid with a 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032
NASA shares observations of recently identified near Earth asteroid, January 29, 2025, - Latest calculations conclude asteroid 2024 YR4 now poses no significant threat to Earth in 2032 and beyond February 24, 2025