Indiana voters shifted significantly toward Democrats in this year's midterm elections, particularly among younger voters and people who sat out the previous midterm, according to a new analysis from The New York Times.
The Times' Voter Trends project estimates Democrats received 51 percent of Indiana's U.S. House vote, compared with 48 percent for Republicans.
That represents a 21-percentage-point shift toward Democrats in the statewide voting margin compared with the 2024 presidential election, when President Donald Trump carried Indiana.
The shift doesn't mean Democrats gained 21 percent more votes. It measures the change in the difference between Democratic and Republican support across the two elections.
The largest estimated shift was among voters ages 18 to 29.
The Times estimates 68 percent of those voters supported Democrats, compared with 31 percent for Republicans. That's a 43-point shift toward Democrats compared with 2024.
Voters ages 30 to 44 also favored Democrats, 58 to 41 percent, with a 31-point shift toward the party.
Older voters continued to lean Republican. Those ages 45 to 64 favored Republicans by nine points, while voters 65 and older favored Republicans by five points.
However, both groups also moved toward Democrats compared with the previous presidential election.
The analysis found differences between men and women.
Women favored Democrats by 12 points, while men favored Republicans by nine points. But men's voting margin shifted 24 points toward Democrats compared with 2024, a larger change than the 18-point shift among women.
Education was another dividing line.
Voters with a high school education favored Republicans by 11 points, while those with postgraduate degrees favored Democrats by 26 points.
White voters without a college degree favored Republicans by 19 points, although their estimated margin shifted 22 points toward Democrats.
The analysis also suggests that voters who did not participate in the previous midterm played an important role in this year's electorate.
Among Indiana voters who cast ballots in 2022, Republicans held a five-point advantage in 2026.
But among those who did not vote in the previous midterm, Democrats led by 15 points.
The Times estimates that people who skipped the 2022 election made up 37 percent of Indiana's 2026 electorate.
The findings come as Republicans maintained control of Indiana's 9th Congressional District, where incumbent Erin Houchin defeated Democrat Brad Meyer.
The Times developed its estimates using polling, voter records and election data.
Its Indiana analysis included interviews with 123 voters from the state. As of its Nov. 4 update, the model had not incorporated Indiana precinct-level results and had verified turnout information for 45 percent of Indiana voters.
The analysis also compares two different kinds of elections, a presidential election in 2024 and congressional races in 2026, meaning differences in candidates and turnout could contribute to the shifts.
The findings nevertheless suggest a substantially different Indiana electorate from the one that voted in the 2024 presidential election.
