Increasing beef imports has done little so far to lower prices at the grocery store, according to an analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The organization tracked prices for 80 percent lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores in 22 states after an expanded import quota took effect Sept. 1.

Average prices in Farm Bureau's sample fell from $7.29 per pound Sept. 2 to $7.13 three weeks later. Of the 41 stores, 30 ended the period charging the same price as when tracking began.

Farm Bureau economist Bernt Nelson said adding imported beef hasn't changed the underlying forces keeping prices high.

“The biggest thing keeping beef more expensive at the grocery store goes back to the fundamentals of supply and demand,” Nelson said. “Cattle supplies are still really tight.”

The U.S. cattle industry has been contracting for years as periods of lower profitability led farmers and ranchers to reduce their herds.

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Nelson said that has collided with strong consumer demand for beef.

“We've kind of hit a point where those tight supplies over the past couple of years have been met with extremely strong consumer demand for beef, and that's what's brought us to this higher price scenario,” Nelson said.

Farm Bureau opposed the expanded import quota and is asking the Trump administration to reverse it.

Nelson said policies should instead give cattle producers confidence that rebuilding their herds will pay off over the long term.

“They need certainty to believe that if they make that investment, that the returns will be there in the future to sustain themselves and even their next generation,” he said.

But rebuilding America's cattle supply won't produce immediate relief for consumers.

Ranchers must decide whether to send young animals into the beef supply or retain them for breeding. Keeping more cattle for breeding means fewer animals available for beef production in the short term.

Nelson said it can take about two years for a retained calf to produce another calf and meaningfully contribute to herd expansion.

“As we begin rebuilding the herd and work towards those stronger fundamentals, we're still going to put a squeeze on cattle that are available for the beef supply chain,” Nelson said.

That means beef prices could remain elevated, and potentially rise further if consumer demand stays strong, before a larger cattle herd eventually increases supply.

Farm Bureau says the current situation follows seven to eight years of contraction in the U.S. cattle herd.

“This is a situation that's been many years in the making,” Nelson said.