While Catholics around the world celebrated the selection of a new pope Thursday, some are cashing out.
The conclave of 133 cardinals selected Cardinal Robert Prevost. The first American pope, he’ll go by Pope Leo XIV. Vatican experts and oddsmakers didn’t select Prevost as their frontrunner to lead the Catholic Church. Forbes reported some betters were blessed with payouts totaling more than $50,000.
John Holden, an Indiana University and business professor and gambling regulation expert, said betting on the pope isn’t as common as placing wagers on Major League Baseball games.
“I think it's basically a novelty, but it is something that has a long history,” Holden said. ‘This has been going on for centuries. It's a very minor market in terms of the gambling markets that are out there.”
Holden said people have bet on the pope since the 15th Century. This year, there were markets on who the pope will be, where he’s from and how many rounds of voting the conclave would go through.
Though the new pope hails from Chicago, it would have been difficult for Americans to place their bets.
“There's no legal way for Americans to bet on who the next pope will be at any of our regulated sports books,” Holden said. “The only site that you're able to quote, unquote ‘bet’ at is a site called Kalshi. It's regulated by the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission]. That requires a registration process. You can't just show up and be like, ‘here's $20.’”
On Wednesday, more than $8 million had been traded on Kalshi for the next pope.
Holden said typically, oddsmakers use their expertise on sports to set lines. But he said few oddsmakers are experts on the Catholic Church. That’s why it was hard for them to know Prevost would be picked.
Before Prevost was selected and emerged from the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, Forbes reported on Thursday morning Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin surged in betting odds.
“We don't get a pope very often,” Holden said. “The fact that this only happens every few years, less frequently than a presidential election, means that there aren't very many experts on who's going to be the next pope.”
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Aubrey is our higher education reporter and a Report For America corps member. Contact her at aubmwrig@iu.edu or follow her on X @aubreymwright .
