State legislators had the most to lose in redistricting that would have benefited the president and Republicans in Congress, an expert on Indiana politics said.
“(State senators) wouldn't have any of the direct benefits because, of course, they’re changing the congressional district lines, not changing their own,” said Laura Wilson, associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis and researcher with the Mike Downs Center.
She said if senators agreed to convene in December, the timeline for reviewing and approving new maps would be “incredibly compressed.” The usual process, every 10 years, takes months.
Candidates who run in Indiana’s May primaries need to know what district they’re in by the first week of January, which is when filing opens. County clerks of court, who help handle election administration, need to know if a candidate qualifies to file in a district. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election next November, with primaries in May for Indiana.
President Trump called on states to redraw congressional lines to protect Republicans’ narrow control in both chambers of Congress before midterm elections. In the House, Republicans currently have 219 representatives, five more than Democrats. Republicans have a majority in the Senate, too, with 53 seats to Democrats’ 47 and two independents.
Last week, Indiana Senate Pro Tem Rodric Bray said he didn’t have enough votes to move redistricting forward. Indiana senators voted Tuesday to meet for the legislative session starting in January, as usual, backing Bray’s statement.
Read more: Indiana legislative leaders dodge discussing redistricting pressure
The move prompted backlash from Indiana Governor Mike Braun, who called last month for state senators to convene in December for a special session on redistricting.
Despite the senators’ vote against convening, Braun shared on Facebook the same day that he “looks forward” to the senators meeting to advance new congressional maps. His message accused Bray of siding with Democrats.
President Donald Trump called out Bray and Indiana senators on social media.
But political experts with the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics say the demands put state senators in a difficult position with their party and constituents. Wilson said a special session for redistricting contradicts efforts in Indiana’s last legislative session, when lawmakers passed a two-year budget that cut spending by seven percent.
“It flies in the face, quite frankly, of what we saw the state government do in the spring with the legislative budgeting session,” she said. “You're talking about spending money – around a quarter-of-a million dollars or higher – in terms of convening that special session to redraw the district maps.”
Read more: Three more Indiana GOP senators report swatting attempts as redistricting pressure rages
Indiana joins states like Kansas and New Hampshire to resist mid-decade redistricting. Like Indiana, New Hampshire has a Republican governor, along with Republican control in both of its state legislative chambers. Kansas has a Republican majority in both of its legislative chambers, though its governor is a Democrat.
University of Evansville associate professor of political science Robert Dion said redistricting had political risks for state senators, too.
Read more: Redistricting bill sent to governor as lawmakers finish process
Multiple polls showed a lack of support for mid-decade redistricting, even with Trump’s supporters. A Bellweather Research poll of Hoosier voters reported 51 percent of respondents were opposed to redistricting this year. Of the 800 polled, 49 percent were Republicans, 35 precent were Democrats and 16 percent were independents.
Of Indiana’s forty Republican state senators, only ten were not in office when election lines were drawn in 2021.
“It's a tough sell to try to convince them that they did it the wrong way last time around,” Dion said. “When anybody who was paying attention knows that it was a careful, slow process. (Redistricting in December) was going to be railroaded through, and they were asking senators to sign on to maps that they hadn't seen yet.”
Read more: Once a 'hard no' on redistricting, Lucas says he's rethinking position after White House meeting
Indiana's state senators are elected to four-year terms, compared to a two-year cycle for the one hundred state representatives, which Dion said might play into their decisions.
Including the time a few spent as a state rep, thirteen of the Republican senators have been in office for more than fifteen years. Seven have been in office for more than twenty.
“Part of that might be the nature of that institution, that sort of permanent Senate majority, those old timers that were there long before this crowd was in power – Trump and Braun – and they'll be around after,” Dion said.
At least four senators who are opposed or undecided on the redistricting have reported attempted swattings on their homes.
Gov. Braun condemned these acts. But he also said he was “left with no choice” but find ways to “compel” state senators to convene on the issue.
Braun said he stands with President Trump’s plans to recruit and finance primary candidates to run against senators who refuse to back redistricting.
“It’s not been subtle,” said Michael Wolf, political science professor and acting director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.
Read past coverage: Republicans Unveil Proposed Indiana Senate Redistricting Map
The party in power usually loses seats during primary elections, Wolf said. He expects some state senators to face challenges with financial backing from conservative groups like Club For Growth, which is led by former Indiana Congressman David McIntosh.
“(McIntosh) knows where the bodies are buried in Indiana,” Wolf said, “and so he will be very aggressive here.”
The May primary coming so soon after Indiana’s legislative session puts the senators who opposed redistricting in a difficult position. The session is set to end in March.
Most of Indiana’s political competition is in primaries rather than general elections. Wilson said the pressure could make for a shorter legislative session.
“For those that are going to have a primary challenger, they're going to want to get in, get out of there, have business done, and spend the time that they have remaining competing against that candidate for the May primary,” she said.
